August 30, 2008 – 12:28 pm by Wacked Econ
With Pick, McCain Reclaims His Maverick Image:
McCain’s selection of the nationally untested Palin is the most unlikely choice of a running mate since George H.W. Bush tapped then-Sen. Dan Quayle in 1988, a move as risky as it was bold. The decision brings the senator from Arizona immediate dividends with his base and eventually, perhaps, with swing voters. But it comes at potentially significant cost to his effort to discredit Democratic nominee Barack Obama as unprepared for the presidency.
This is a fair analogy, but misunderstands the political dynamics. The elder Bush’s pick in 1988 was a terrible choice, but Bush was running for a still largely popular president’s third term. Even after Quayle got his 3 years of experience, in 1991 political pundits still speculated about whether Bush would keep him on the ticket.
McCain has picked an awful candidate for VP, someone who is a pure token, who has no appreciable experience, comes from a thoroughly corrupt political climate in Alaska, and who has engaged in her own political corruption. This is very bad for McCain, who was pulling even.
I predict a bump, followed by a decline as McCain loses his best argument against Obama - his lack of experience - and as word comes out about Palin, her lack of experience, and her inevitable gaffes.
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